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11
high degree of fit typical of a commercial product. It is very likely that a similar
finding would be revealed if a logistic function were employed. Again, the purpose
is simply to determine whether the diffusion pattern of RTAs is similar to the
diffusion pattern of a typical commercial product. Similarity in the adoption of both
types of innovations justifies inclusion of the recent advances in diffusion theory in
the analytical framework. Once the diffusion patterns are shown to be similar, it is
deduced from this generality that the RTA represents an innovation. Having
established the RTA trade policy as an innovation, it is then justified to ask: How is
RTA trade policy innovative?
Implicit in the identification of a diffusion pattern is the existence of an
instigating event, typically the introduction of the innovation (e.g., the minivan). By
calculating the amount of time required of each state to adopt an RTA following the
introduction of the innovation presents an opportunity to examine factors
contributing to the variation in timing. Time to event analysis as described here
offers a unique opportunity to evaluate the relative importance of factors influencing
the variation in time to adopt the RTA as trade policy. Identification of the relative
importance of influencing factors permits evaluation of the supply and demand
analytical framework augmented by diffusion theory.
Examination of the variation in timing to adopt the RTA is worthy of
investigation because the exclusivity featured by RTAs fundamentally contradicts
the purpose of the GATT and the effort of the WTO to advance multilateral trade
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 20 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 11 high degree of fit typical of a commercial product. It is very likely that a similar finding would be revealed if a logistic function were employed. Again, the purpose is simply to determine whether the diffusion pattern of RTAs is similar to the diffusion pattern of a typical commercial product. Similarity in the adoption of both types of innovations justifies inclusion of the recent advances in diffusion theory in the analytical framework. Once the diffusion patterns are shown to be similar, it is deduced from this generality that the RTA represents an innovation. Having established the RTA trade policy as an innovation, it is then justified to ask: How is RTA trade policy innovative? Implicit in the identification of a diffusion pattern is the existence of an instigating event, typically the introduction of the innovation (e.g., the minivan). By calculating the amount of time required of each state to adopt an RTA following the introduction of the innovation presents an opportunity to examine factors contributing to the variation in timing. Time to event analysis as described here offers a unique opportunity to evaluate the relative importance of factors influencing the variation in time to adopt the RTA as trade policy. Identification of the relative importance of influencing factors permits evaluation of the supply and demand analytical framework augmented by diffusion theory. Examination of the variation in timing to adopt the RTA is worthy of investigation because the exclusivity featured by RTAs fundamentally contradicts the purpose of the GATT and the effort of the WTO to advance multilateral trade |
