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6
Garrett 2006). Alternatively, were political and economic liberalism rejected, the
number of potential buyers would decrease.
Determinants of supply include the number of sellers, the price of alternate
goods, and technological innovation. As states adopt or reject liberalism, the number
of states willing and able to participate in RTA negotiations will be impacted. States
facing a resource constraint will evaluate the relative costs and benefits associated
with production of an RTA versus the costs and benefits associated with
participation in multilateral negotiations (Krugman 1991b).
Technological innovation reflects the ability to produce a comparable
amount of liberalization at a lower cost or more desirable liberalization at the same
cost. Chizik (2007) asserts that the adoption of the Enabling Clause may have
unintended consequences that reduce the expected costs of RTAs for developing
countries. As will be demonstrated later in this analysis developing countries are
central to the increase of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO however, there does
not appear to be a perceptible increase in the number of RTAs organized under the
Enabling Clause that corresponds with the most recent wave of RTA notifications.
As a practical matter in the context of this analysis, a technological innovation
reflects the negotiation of an RTA that is not rejected by the WTO despite violation
of the legal limitations assigned to preferential agreements as outlined in the
GATT/WTO, which is reviewed formally in a later chapter. Accordingly, the
expected benefits of liberalization accrue to the state at a lower cost than expected
under a more conscientious application of the rules. How this process may occur is
Object Description
| Title | Riding the wave: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the popularity of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO |
| Author | McClough, David Andrew |
| Author email | mcclough@usc.edu; dmcclou@bgsu.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Political Economy & Public Policy |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2008-08-07 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-18 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Katada, Saori N. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nugent, Jeffrey B. Cartier, Carolyn |
| Abstract | The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) notified to the GATT/WTO since the early 1980s deviates from the long-term trend and reflects participation of nearly every member of the United Nations. This dissertation seeks to explain the current wave of RTA notifications by supplementing the economic model of supply and demand with diffusion theory. Application of the supply and demand model is useful in distinguishing between changes in demand and changes insupply of RTAs. This distinction is seldom emphasized in the current literature examining RTAs. Recent applications of diffusion theory in the discipline of international relations offer a unique opportunity to include a dynamic force in the static analysis of the supply and demand model. Empirical analysis assesses the fit of the RTA diffusion pattern by comparing the RTA diffusion pattern to a cumulative standard normal distribution. The analysis indicates that the diffusion pattern of RTAs resembles the diffusion of an innovation through a social system.; The implication of this finding is that the adoption of an RTA as trade policy is not made independently of the decision by other states. Indeed, the analysis suggests interdependency between states. Further empirical analysis explores economic and political variables that may explain the decision to adopt the RTA as trade policy. The empirical analysis is unique in that survival analysis is utilized to assess the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA since the early 1980s. A central discovery is that regional designation explains the variation in duration to adopt an initial RTA. Multiple regression analysis confirms the results generated using survival analysis and support the assertion that the proliferation of RTAs likely reflects changes in both the demand for RTAs and the supply of RTAs. This dissertation concludes by considering implications for the WTO resulting from the increase in RTA notifications. |
| Keyword | trade agreements |
| Coverage date | after 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1675 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | McClough, David Andrew |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-McClough-2338 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume32/etd-McClough-2338.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 15 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | 6 Garrett 2006). Alternatively, were political and economic liberalism rejected, the number of potential buyers would decrease. Determinants of supply include the number of sellers, the price of alternate goods, and technological innovation. As states adopt or reject liberalism, the number of states willing and able to participate in RTA negotiations will be impacted. States facing a resource constraint will evaluate the relative costs and benefits associated with production of an RTA versus the costs and benefits associated with participation in multilateral negotiations (Krugman 1991b). Technological innovation reflects the ability to produce a comparable amount of liberalization at a lower cost or more desirable liberalization at the same cost. Chizik (2007) asserts that the adoption of the Enabling Clause may have unintended consequences that reduce the expected costs of RTAs for developing countries. As will be demonstrated later in this analysis developing countries are central to the increase of RTA notifications to the GATT/WTO however, there does not appear to be a perceptible increase in the number of RTAs organized under the Enabling Clause that corresponds with the most recent wave of RTA notifications. As a practical matter in the context of this analysis, a technological innovation reflects the negotiation of an RTA that is not rejected by the WTO despite violation of the legal limitations assigned to preferential agreements as outlined in the GATT/WTO, which is reviewed formally in a later chapter. Accordingly, the expected benefits of liberalization accrue to the state at a lower cost than expected under a more conscientious application of the rules. How this process may occur is |
