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Convergence
rates
Location Year Lat Lon (mm/yr) Plates
South Chile (SASZ) 1960 -39.5 -74.5 70 NZ-SA
Central Chile (SASZ) 1922 -28.5 -70 70 NZ-SA
North Chile (SASZ) 1877 -20 -70.5 68 NZ-AP
South Peru (SASZ) 1868 -18.3 -70.6 67 NZ-AP
North Peru 1940 -10.5 -77 63 NZ-SA
Central America (CASZ) 1992 11.2 -87.8 73 CO-NA
Mexico (CASZ) 1932 19.5 -104.25 30 RI-NA
Alaska (AASZ) 1964 61.04 -147.73 54 PA-NA
East Aleutian (AASZ) 1946 53.31 -162.88 64 PA-NA
West Aleutian (WASZ) 1965 51.1 178.4 73 PA-NA
Kamchatka (KSZ) 1952 52.75 159.5 78 PA-OK
Kuril Islands (KSZ) 1963 44.8 149.5 81 PA-OK
Northeast Japan (KSZ) 1968 40.84 143.22 83 PA-OK
Ecuador-Colombia 1906 1 -81.5 55 NZ-ND
Cascadia 1700 48 -125 42 JF-NA
Nankai 1707 33.2 136.5 57 PS-AM
Ryukyu 1920 30.47 131.29 65 PS-ON
Izu 1947 32.54 141.64 45 PA-PH
Marianas 1929 24.27 142.66 27 PA-MA
Loyalty-Vanuatu 1950 -18.25 167.5 103 AU-NH
Tonga 1865 -20 -173.5 185 NH-CR
Kermadec 1917 -29 -177 63 AU-KE
New Zealand 1931 -39.5 177 43 AU-KE
Java 1994 -10.5 112.8 64 AU-SU
South Sumatra 1833 -3 100 51 AU-SU
North Sumatra 2004 3.3 95.78 33 IN-BU
Makran 1945 24.5 63 28 AR-EU
Lesser Antilles 1974 16.7 -61.4 20 SA-CA
Table 3.3: Plate convergence rate and corresponding earthquake locations and years from Stein
and Okal (2007)
Subduction zones Segments Number of runs
KSZ 31 519
WASZ 10 99
AASZ 45 559
CASZ 36 619
SASZ 45 799
Table 3.4: Number of runs considered using the scenarios from Table 3.2
130
Object Description
| Title | Deterministic and probabilistic tsunami studies in California from near and farfield sources |
| Author | Uslu, Burak |
| Author email | uslu@usc.edu; burak.uslu@noaa.gov |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Civil Engineering |
| School | Viterbi School of Engineering |
| Date defended/completed | 2007-09-21 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-30 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Synolakis, Costas E. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Bardet, Jean-Pierre Okal, Emile A. Moore, James Elliott, II |
| Abstract | California is vulnerable to tsunamis from both local and distant sources. While there is an overall awareness of the threat, tsunamis are infrequent events and few communities have a good understanding of vulnerability. To quantitatively evaluate the tsunami hazard in the State, deterministic and probabilistic methods are used to compute inundation and runup heights in selected population centers along the coast.; For the numerical modeling of tsunamis, a two dimensional finite difference propagation and runup model is used. All known near and farfield sources of relevance to California are considered. For the farfield hazard analysis, the Pacific Rim is subdivided into small segments where unit ruptures are assumed, then the transpacific propagations are calculated. The historical records from the 1952 Kamchatka, 1960 Great Chile, 1964 Great Alaska, and 1994 and 2006 Kuril Islands earthquakes are compared to modeled results. A sensitivity analysis is performed on each subduction zone segment to determine the relative effect of the source location on wave heights off the California Coast.; Here, both time-dependent and time-independent methods are used to assess the tsunami risk. In the latter, slip rates are obtained from GPS measurements of the tectonic motions and then used as a basis to estimate the return period of possible earthquakes. The return periods of tsunamis resulting from these events are combined with computed waveheight estimates to provide a total probability of exceedance of given waveheights for ports and harbors in California. The time independent method follows the practice of past studies that have used Gutenberg and Richter type relationships to assign probabilities to specific tsunami sources.; The Cascadia Subduction Zone is the biggest nearfield earthquake source and is capable of producing mega-thrust earthquake ruptures between the Gorda and North American plates and may cause extensive damage north of Cape Mendocino, to Seattle. The present analysis suggests that San Francisco Bay and Central California are most sensitive to tsunamis originating from the Alaska and Aleutians Subduction Zone (AASZ). An earthquake with a magnitude comparable to the 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake on central AASZ could result in twice the wave height as experienced in San Francisco Bay in 1964.; The probabilistic approach shows that Central California and San Francisco Bay have more frequent tsunamis from the AASZ, while Southern California can be impacted from tsunamis generated on Chile and Central American Subduction Zone as well as the AASZ. |
| Keyword | assessment; California; hazard; model; probability; tsunami |
| Geographic subject | capes: Kamchatka; islands: Kuril Islands; fault zones: Cascadia Subduction Zone |
| Geographic subject (state) | California; Alaska |
| Geographic subject (country) | Chile |
| Coverage date | 1952/2008 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1706 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | Uslu, Burak |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-uslu-2434 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume40/etd-uslu-2434.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 145 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | Convergence rates Location Year Lat Lon (mm/yr) Plates South Chile (SASZ) 1960 -39.5 -74.5 70 NZ-SA Central Chile (SASZ) 1922 -28.5 -70 70 NZ-SA North Chile (SASZ) 1877 -20 -70.5 68 NZ-AP South Peru (SASZ) 1868 -18.3 -70.6 67 NZ-AP North Peru 1940 -10.5 -77 63 NZ-SA Central America (CASZ) 1992 11.2 -87.8 73 CO-NA Mexico (CASZ) 1932 19.5 -104.25 30 RI-NA Alaska (AASZ) 1964 61.04 -147.73 54 PA-NA East Aleutian (AASZ) 1946 53.31 -162.88 64 PA-NA West Aleutian (WASZ) 1965 51.1 178.4 73 PA-NA Kamchatka (KSZ) 1952 52.75 159.5 78 PA-OK Kuril Islands (KSZ) 1963 44.8 149.5 81 PA-OK Northeast Japan (KSZ) 1968 40.84 143.22 83 PA-OK Ecuador-Colombia 1906 1 -81.5 55 NZ-ND Cascadia 1700 48 -125 42 JF-NA Nankai 1707 33.2 136.5 57 PS-AM Ryukyu 1920 30.47 131.29 65 PS-ON Izu 1947 32.54 141.64 45 PA-PH Marianas 1929 24.27 142.66 27 PA-MA Loyalty-Vanuatu 1950 -18.25 167.5 103 AU-NH Tonga 1865 -20 -173.5 185 NH-CR Kermadec 1917 -29 -177 63 AU-KE New Zealand 1931 -39.5 177 43 AU-KE Java 1994 -10.5 112.8 64 AU-SU South Sumatra 1833 -3 100 51 AU-SU North Sumatra 2004 3.3 95.78 33 IN-BU Makran 1945 24.5 63 28 AR-EU Lesser Antilles 1974 16.7 -61.4 20 SA-CA Table 3.3: Plate convergence rate and corresponding earthquake locations and years from Stein and Okal (2007) Subduction zones Segments Number of runs KSZ 31 519 WASZ 10 99 AASZ 45 559 CASZ 36 619 SASZ 45 799 Table 3.4: Number of runs considered using the scenarios from Table 3.2 130 |
