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List of Figures
1.1 Major Subduction zones that can trigger tsunamis that will be effective in Cal-ifornia.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2 Areas of potential tsunami inundation (yellow) by a 20feet (6.1m)tsunami at
the Golden Gate (after Ritter and Dupre, 1972). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.3 Tsunami inundation in Crescent City from 1964 Alaska tsunami by Griffin (1964). 16
1.4 Dock locations and aerial view of the Crescent City harbor prior to 2006 Event.
Arrow indicates the direction of the in the port triggered by the tsunami. . . . 18
1.5 The water surface elevation at Crescent City tide gauge following the 2006
Kurils Islands earthquake. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
1.6 Twelve hours long tide gauge records at San Francisco Bay. (a) The record of
tsunami from the 1960 Chile earthquake at the Alameda and (b), Presidio tide
gauge. Similarly (c), the tsunami record at Alameda and (d), record at Presidio
from 1964 Alaska earthquake. The water level time histories are not detided . 23
1.7 Map of the Cascadia subduction zone, modified from Satake et al. (2003). . . 26
1.8 Initial free surface elevations for scenario earthquakes CSZ SN, SW, SP1, SP2
and L. Note that (e) CSZ L uses a different color scale a, b, c and d. A sixth
scenario CSZ N is similar to (e), but the rupture does not extend into California. 27
1.9 Nested numerical grids for the tsunami numerical computations presented in
this thesis for California. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.1 Source regions around the Pacific for farfield tsunami affecting California. . . 41
2.2 Subduction zones of the Pacific Rim discretized into 2 parallel rows of 100km
long by 50kmwide fault segments. Clockwise from upper left; Alaska-Aleutian
Islands (AASZ), South America-Chile (SASZ), Cascadia (CSZ) and Kamchatka-
Kuril-Japan (KSZ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
2.3 Locations of Valdez and Port Alberni in Gulf of Alaska. . . . . . . . . . . . 46
v
Object Description
| Title | Deterministic and probabilistic tsunami studies in California from near and farfield sources |
| Author | Uslu, Burak |
| Author email | uslu@usc.edu; burak.uslu@noaa.gov |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Civil Engineering |
| School | Viterbi School of Engineering |
| Date defended/completed | 2007-09-21 |
| Date submitted | 2008 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2008-10-30 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Synolakis, Costas E. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Bardet, Jean-Pierre Okal, Emile A. Moore, James Elliott, II |
| Abstract | California is vulnerable to tsunamis from both local and distant sources. While there is an overall awareness of the threat, tsunamis are infrequent events and few communities have a good understanding of vulnerability. To quantitatively evaluate the tsunami hazard in the State, deterministic and probabilistic methods are used to compute inundation and runup heights in selected population centers along the coast.; For the numerical modeling of tsunamis, a two dimensional finite difference propagation and runup model is used. All known near and farfield sources of relevance to California are considered. For the farfield hazard analysis, the Pacific Rim is subdivided into small segments where unit ruptures are assumed, then the transpacific propagations are calculated. The historical records from the 1952 Kamchatka, 1960 Great Chile, 1964 Great Alaska, and 1994 and 2006 Kuril Islands earthquakes are compared to modeled results. A sensitivity analysis is performed on each subduction zone segment to determine the relative effect of the source location on wave heights off the California Coast.; Here, both time-dependent and time-independent methods are used to assess the tsunami risk. In the latter, slip rates are obtained from GPS measurements of the tectonic motions and then used as a basis to estimate the return period of possible earthquakes. The return periods of tsunamis resulting from these events are combined with computed waveheight estimates to provide a total probability of exceedance of given waveheights for ports and harbors in California. The time independent method follows the practice of past studies that have used Gutenberg and Richter type relationships to assign probabilities to specific tsunami sources.; The Cascadia Subduction Zone is the biggest nearfield earthquake source and is capable of producing mega-thrust earthquake ruptures between the Gorda and North American plates and may cause extensive damage north of Cape Mendocino, to Seattle. The present analysis suggests that San Francisco Bay and Central California are most sensitive to tsunamis originating from the Alaska and Aleutians Subduction Zone (AASZ). An earthquake with a magnitude comparable to the 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake on central AASZ could result in twice the wave height as experienced in San Francisco Bay in 1964.; The probabilistic approach shows that Central California and San Francisco Bay have more frequent tsunamis from the AASZ, while Southern California can be impacted from tsunamis generated on Chile and Central American Subduction Zone as well as the AASZ. |
| Keyword | assessment; California; hazard; model; probability; tsunami |
| Geographic subject | capes: Kamchatka; islands: Kuril Islands; fault zones: Cascadia Subduction Zone |
| Geographic subject (state) | California; Alaska |
| Geographic subject (country) | Chile |
| Coverage date | 1952/2008 |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m1706 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Rights | Uslu, Burak |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Filename | etd-uslu-2434 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume40/etd-uslu-2434.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 5 |
| Contributing entity | University of Southern California |
| Repository email | cisadmin@lib.usc.edu |
| Full text | List of Figures 1.1 Major Subduction zones that can trigger tsunamis that will be effective in Cal-ifornia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2 Areas of potential tsunami inundation (yellow) by a 20feet (6.1m)tsunami at the Golden Gate (after Ritter and Dupre, 1972). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.3 Tsunami inundation in Crescent City from 1964 Alaska tsunami by Griffin (1964). 16 1.4 Dock locations and aerial view of the Crescent City harbor prior to 2006 Event. Arrow indicates the direction of the in the port triggered by the tsunami. . . . 18 1.5 The water surface elevation at Crescent City tide gauge following the 2006 Kurils Islands earthquake. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 1.6 Twelve hours long tide gauge records at San Francisco Bay. (a) The record of tsunami from the 1960 Chile earthquake at the Alameda and (b), Presidio tide gauge. Similarly (c), the tsunami record at Alameda and (d), record at Presidio from 1964 Alaska earthquake. The water level time histories are not detided . 23 1.7 Map of the Cascadia subduction zone, modified from Satake et al. (2003). . . 26 1.8 Initial free surface elevations for scenario earthquakes CSZ SN, SW, SP1, SP2 and L. Note that (e) CSZ L uses a different color scale a, b, c and d. A sixth scenario CSZ N is similar to (e), but the rupture does not extend into California. 27 1.9 Nested numerical grids for the tsunami numerical computations presented in this thesis for California. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 2.1 Source regions around the Pacific for farfield tsunami affecting California. . . 41 2.2 Subduction zones of the Pacific Rim discretized into 2 parallel rows of 100km long by 50kmwide fault segments. Clockwise from upper left; Alaska-Aleutian Islands (AASZ), South America-Chile (SASZ), Cascadia (CSZ) and Kamchatka- Kuril-Japan (KSZ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 2.3 Locations of Valdez and Port Alberni in Gulf of Alaska. . . . . . . . . . . . 46 v |
