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A ROBUST MODEL FOR DISASTER RISK AND DECISION ANALYSIS
by
Carl Erckman Southwell
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
A Dissertation Presented to the
FACULTY OF THE USC SOL PRICE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree
DOCTOR OF POLICY, PLANNING, AND DEVELOPMENT
May 2012
Copyright 2012 Carl Erckman Southwell
Object Description
| Title | A robust model for disaster risk and decision analysis |
| Author | Southwell, Carl Erckman |
| Author email | carl.southwell@gmail.com;carl.southwell@gmail.com |
| Degree | Doctor of Policy, Planning & Development |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Policy, Planning and Development |
| School | School of Policy, Planning and Development |
| Date defended/completed | 2012-02-27 |
| Date submitted | 2012-05-07 |
| Date approved | 2012-05-08 |
| Restricted until | 2012-05-08 |
| Date published | 2012-05-08 |
| Advisor (committee chair) |
von Winterfeldt, Detlof RIchardson, Harry |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Pryor, Larry Southers, Erroll Maya, Isaac |
| Abstract | There are many types of disasters, and it is a challenge to derive a single model of disaster risk and decision analysis that encompasses them all. At the same time, a general model for analyzing disaster risks and decisions could make the tasks of disaster avoidance, prevention, mitigation, rescue, rebuilding, and recovery much easier. This dissertation formulates a model of risk and decision analysis concerned with behaviors (decisions or “objectives”) and stimuli (initial “risks and uncertainties” and their associated sets of choices/utilities/“levers”) that are chronicled and calibrated by “metrics.” Changes in this model are displayed as changes in preferences over time or as conditioned by prior choices. In practice, this dynamic model of risk and decision analysis is usually represented as one or a set of static “time slices” from the model that serve as exemplars for the policy implications the specific, practical analysis is attempting to highlight. ❧ This dissertation showcases some specific, practical analyses—six case studies—whose underlying model is derived from this general model. Each case makes its own points about policy implications related to its specific disaster type and circumstances while, at the same time, each demonstrates the robustness and flexibility of the more general model. Each case employs qualities of a robust model as follows: 1. It outlines the essential elements and relationships in the disaster process being considered, 2. It establishes a set of data that describes and measures the disaster process being considered, 3. It offers opportunities for comparison to actual or hypothetical disasters, 4. It acts as a template to better understand and help prevent recurrences of past disasters, to react and respond to and recover from unfolding disasters, and to plan for and mitigate future disasters, and 5. It serves as a tool to communicate the risks and potential consequences of the disaster being considered and the actions necessary to mitigate its risk. |
| Keyword | disaster; risk; risk analysis; decision analysis; model; hurricane; flood; LPG; LNG; port; security; terrorist attack |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m |
| Rights | Southwell, Carl Erckman |
| Access conditions | The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the author, as the original true and official version of the work, but does not grant the reader permission to use the work if the desired use is covered by copyright. It is the author, as rights holder, who must provide use permission if such use is covered by copyright. The original signature page accompanying the original submission of the work to the USC Libraries is retained by the USC Libraries and a copy of it may be obtained by authorized requesters contacting the repository e-mail address given. |
| Repository name | University of Southern California Digital Library |
| Repository address | USC Digital Library, University of Southern California, University Park Campus MC 7002, 106 University Village, Los Angeles, California 90089-7002, USA |
| Repository email | cisadmin@usc.edu |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume4/etd-SouthwellC-810.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 1 |
| Full text | A ROBUST MODEL FOR DISASTER RISK AND DECISION ANALYSIS by Carl Erckman Southwell ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ A Dissertation Presented to the FACULTY OF THE USC SOL PRICE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF POLICY, PLANNING, AND DEVELOPMENT May 2012 Copyright 2012 Carl Erckman Southwell |
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