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A STOCHASTIC MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH FOR TENNIS: MONTE CARLO
SIMULATION AND MODELING
by
Kamran Aslam
A Dissertation Presented to the
FACULTY OF THE USC GRADUATE SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
(AEROSPACE ENGINEERING)
May 2012
Copyright 2012 Kamran Aslam
Object Description
| Title | A stochastic Markov chain approach for tennis: Monte Carlo simulation and modeling |
| Author | Aslam, Kamran |
| Author email | kamran.j.aslam@gmail.com;aslam@usc.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Aerospace Engineering |
| School | Viterbi School of Engineering |
| Date defended/completed | 2012-03-21 |
| Date submitted | 2012-04-26 |
| Date approved | 2012-04-26 |
| Restricted until | 2012-04-26 |
| Date published | 2012-04-26 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Newton, Paul K. |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Kanso, Eva Fulman, Jason |
| Abstract | This dissertation describes the computational formulation of probability density functions (pdfs) that facilitate head-to-head match simulations in tennis along with ranking systems developed from their use. A background on the statistical method used to develop the pdfs, the Monte Carlo method, and the resulting rankings are included along with a discussion on ranking methods currently being used both in professional sports and in other applications. Using an analytical theory developed by Newton and Keller that defines a tennis player’s probability of winning a game, set, match and single elimination tournament, a computational simulation has been developed in Matlab that allows further modeling not previously possible with the analytical theory alone. Such experimentation consists of the exploration of non-iid effects, considers the concept the varying importance of points in a match and allows an unlimited number of matches to be simulated between unlikely opponents. The results of these studies have provided pdfs that accurately model an individual tennis player’s ability along with a realistic, fair and mathematically sound platform for ranking them. |
| Keyword | monte carlo; markov chain; tennis |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m |
| Rights | Aslam, Kamran |
| Access conditions | The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the author, as the original true and official version of the work, but does not grant the reader permission to use the work if the desired use is covered by copyright. It is the author, as rights holder, who must provide use permission if such use is covered by copyright. The original signature page accompanying the original submission of the work to the USC Libraries is retained by the USC Libraries and a copy of it may be obtained by authorized requesters contacting the repository e-mail address given. |
| Repository name | University of Southern California Digital Library |
| Repository address | USC Digital Library, University of Southern California, University Park Campus MC 7002, 106 University Village, Los Angeles, California 90089-7002, USA |
| Repository email | cisadmin@usc.edu |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume4/etd-AslamKamra-650.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 1 |
| Full text | A STOCHASTIC MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH FOR TENNIS: MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AND MODELING by Kamran Aslam A Dissertation Presented to the FACULTY OF THE USC GRADUATE SCHOOL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (AEROSPACE ENGINEERING) May 2012 Copyright 2012 Kamran Aslam |
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