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PREDICTION OF EXTREME RUNOFF FREQUENCY EVENTS IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA
by
Bennington J Willardson
A Dissertation Presented to the
FACULTY OF THE USC GRADUATE SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
(CIVIL ENGINEERING)
August 2011
Copyright 2011 Bennington J Willardson
Object Description
| Title | Prediction of extreme runoff frequency events in southern California |
| Author | Willardson, Bennington J |
| Author email | bwillard@ladpw.org;benningtonj@yahoo.com |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Civil Engineering |
| School | Viterbi School of Engineering |
| Date defended/completed | 2011-07-14 |
| Date submitted | 2011-07-14 |
| Date approved | 2011-07-15 |
| Restricted until | 2011-07-15 |
| Date published | 2011-07-15 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Lee, Jiin-Jen |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Nasseri, Iraj Moore, James E., II Masri, Sami Lee, Vincent W. |
| Abstract | The prediction of extreme runoff events has significant risk and financial implications when dealing with hydraulic infrastructure. This is especially true in highly urbanized areas such as Southern California. Two methods for determining extreme runoff exist: extrapolation of existing runoff data using extreme event probability distributions, or hydrologic modeling using design rainfall events and watershed characteristics to generate an estimate of the extreme runoff event. This research investigates both methods to evaluate usefulness and limitations in providing guidance for risk and financial analysis. ❧ Design of levees and flood protection channels often focuses on providing protection from events with a 50- to 100-year recurrence interval. In many areas of the country, stream gage record sets do not contain records of this length. The effects of record length, probability distribution selection, and the method of parameter estimation are evaluated to determine the impacts on prediction of the extreme runoff event used for levee and channel design. ❧ Design storms are often used with hydrologic models to predict runoff for events larger than those measured through systematic stream gaging. The Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) - Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) methodology is widely used. This research evaluates the use of this standard on design for major hydraulic structures such as dam spillways within Southern California. Two standard PMP methodologies are evaluated based on rain gage frequency analysis within Los Angeles County. The effects of soils, watershed characteristics, and wild fire on extreme runoff events are also evaluated using Monte Carlo Simulation of 27 watersheds within the County. ❧ The Monte Carlo Simulations evaluates two design storms, two soil loss methodologies, and the effects of fire within a watershed. The structure and development of the model will be discussed, as well as the results for the different cases in determining extreme runoff events. Conclusions will be drawn regarding prediction of extreme runoff events in Southern California. |
| Keyword | extreme events; fire effects; probable maximum flood; probable maximum precipitation; runoff; statistical distributions |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m |
| Rights | Willardson, Bennington J |
| Access conditions | The author retains rights to his/her dissertation, thesis or other graduate work according to U.S. copyright law. Electronic access is being provided by the USC Libraries in agreement with the author, as the original true and official version of the work, but does not grant the reader permission to use the work if the desired use is covered by copyright. It is the author, as rights holder, who must provide use permission if such use is covered by copyright. The original signature page accompanying the original submission of the work to the USC Libraries is retained by the USC Libraries and a copy of it may be obtained by authorized requesters contacting the repository e-mail address given. |
| Repository name | University of Southern California Digital Library |
| Repository address | USC Digital Library, University of Southern California, University Park Campus MC 7002, 106 University Village, Los Angeles, California 90089-7002, USA |
| Repository email | cisadmin@usc.edu |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume71/etd-Willardson-89.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 1 |
| Full text | PREDICTION OF EXTREME RUNOFF FREQUENCY EVENTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA by Bennington J Willardson A Dissertation Presented to the FACULTY OF THE USC GRADUATE SCHOOL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (CIVIL ENGINEERING) August 2011 Copyright 2011 Bennington J Willardson |
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