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PREDICTING ALCOHOL USE:
A NONLINEAR MODEL WITH EXPECTANCIES AND MEMORY
ASSOCIATIONS
by
Archana Jajodia
_____________________________________________________________
A Dissertation Presented to the
FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
(PSYCHOLOGY)
August 2007
Copyright 2007 Archana Jajodia
Object Description
| Title | Predicting alcohol use: a nonlinear model with expectancies and memory associations |
| Author | Jajodia, Archana |
| Author email | jajodia@usc.edu |
| Degree | Doctor of Philosophy |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Psychology |
| School | College of Letters, Arts and Sciences |
| Date defended/completed | 2007-05-07 |
| Date submitted | 2007 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2007-06-22 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | Earleywine, Mitchell |
| Advisor (committee member) |
Davison, Gerald Prescott, Carol Tjan, Bosco Moore, James, II |
| Abstract | This research focused on creating a nonlinear predictive model of alcohol use using explicit and implicit alcohol expectancies and personality and family history variables; looking at age-related differences in the relationship of these factors to alcohol use; and evaluating the use of artificial neural networks as a tool for generating a nonlinear predictive model. A mixed-age adult sample of 303 participants from a college participant pool as well as the community responded to the implicit association task, filled out paper and pencil measures, and was interviewed about alcohol use. A set of latent variable models and artificial neural network models were used to generate cross-sectional and longitudinal predictions of alcohol use. There was good support for continued use of the positive implicit association task with a college age sample, but less support for the use of this measure to predict alcohol use in an older population. There were other age related differences in how expectancies related to alcohol use. On leaving out the risk and aggression subscale, negative expectancies appeared to be important predictors of alcohol use across age groups both cross-sectionally as well as prospectively. Implicit positive expectancies of alcohol also partially mediated the link between disinhibition and current alcohol use. Positive and negative expectancies interacted with each other, as well as with disinhibition and age, and several combinations of these variables formed further interactions. Negative expectancies also showed significant quadratic effects in predicting alcohol use. The neural network model appeared superior to linear regression in predicting alcohol use both in terms of fit and generalizability and an analysis of the results obtained from the neural network model was also useful in pointing to several interactions and nonlinearities in the data that could be confirmed in a linear model too.; It is recommended that future alcohol expectancy research pay more careful attention to age related differences in predicting drinking especially when using the new implicit measures; as well as negative expectancies, and look more closely at the nonlinearities in these variables in predicting alcohol use. |
| Keyword | Implicit Association Test IAT; negative alcohol expectancies; positive alcohol expectancies; memory associations; artificial neural networks; non-linear analysis; alcohol use |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m548 |
| Rights | Jajodia, Archana |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | http://www.usc.edu/isd/libraries/services/ask_a_librarian/email/ |
| Filename | etd-Jajodia-20070622 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume51/etd-Jajodia-20070622.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 1 |
| Full text | PREDICTING ALCOHOL USE: A NONLINEAR MODEL WITH EXPECTANCIES AND MEMORY ASSOCIATIONS by Archana Jajodia _____________________________________________________________ A Dissertation Presented to the FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (PSYCHOLOGY) August 2007 Copyright 2007 Archana Jajodia |
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