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USING DECISION AND RISK ANALYSIS TO ASSIST IN
POLICY MAKING ABOUT TERRORISM
by
Heather Beth Rosoff
A Dissertation Presented to the
FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
(POLICY, PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT)
August 2009
Copyright 2009 Heather Beth Rosoff
Object Description
| Title | Using decision and risk analysis to assist in policy making about terrorism |
| Author | Rosoff, Heather Beth |
| Author email | rosoff@usc.edu; hrosoff5@yahoo.com |
| Degree | Doctor of Public Administration |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Degree program | Public Policy |
| School | School of Policy, Planning, and Development |
| Date defended/completed | 2009-05-20 |
| Date submitted | 2009 |
| Restricted until | Unrestricted |
| Date published | 2009-08-07 |
| Advisor (committee chair) | von Winterfeldt, Detlof |
| Advisor (committee member) |
John, Richard Graddy, Elizabeth |
| Abstract | Risk has been characterized as a function of a potential threat, vulnerability to the threat, and the consequences were the threat to be carried out. In the context of terrorism, threats are the individuals who might wage an attack against a specific target; vulnerabilities are the people and targets whose safety is contingent upon the effectiveness of security policies; and consequences are the possible negative outcomes from an attack. The intent of this paper is to use different risk and decision analysis techniques to assist in the policy making relative to assessing these three different components that define terrorism risk.; First, a methodology is described for representing terrorist leader preferences for alternative attack strategies against the U.S. A multi-attribute utility model embedded within a @Risk simulation model was developed to characterize terrorist motivations and values. Ultimately, relative likelihood of a terrorist attack is determined as a function of the terrorists' attack utility. While the model’s outputs are mostly illustrative of the methodology used, the policy implications of the approach are considered.; Next, the threat of attacks on the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is analyzed. Terrorists are assumed to be using a radiological dispersal device (RDD, also known as a “dirty bomb”) to shut down port operations and cause substantial economic and psychological impacts. The analysis is an exploratory investigation of a combination of several risk analysis tools, including scenario generation and pruning, project risk analysis, direct consequence modeling, and indirect economic impact assessment. The implications for countering a dirty bomb, including the protection of the radiological sources and intercepting an ongoing dirty bomb attack, are discussed.; Lastly, a compilation of three studies were conducted to assess how individuals perceive the risks of terrorism. The psychometric paradigm is employed to evaluate the influence of various predictor variables, both cognitive and emotional, on this calculation. Results describing the findings’ policy implications on preparedness and response efforts, such as what efforts are needed to keep people educated about terrorism and how that information should be directed, are included. |
| Keyword | decision analysis; risk analysis; decision making; policy analysis; terrorism |
| Geographic subject (city or populated place) | Los Angeles; Long Beach |
| Geographic subject (state) | California |
| Language | English |
| Part of collection | University of Southern California dissertations and theses |
| Publisher (of the original version) | University of Southern California |
| Place of publication (of the original version) | Los Angeles, California |
| Publisher (of the digital version) | University of Southern California. Libraries |
| Provenance | Electronically uploaded by the author |
| Type | texts |
| Legacy record ID | usctheses-m2540 |
| Rights | Rosoff, Heather Beth |
| Repository name | Libraries, University of Southern California |
| Repository address | Los Angeles, California |
| Repository email | http://www.usc.edu/isd/libraries/services/ask_a_librarian/email/ |
| Filename | etd-Rosoff-2890 |
| Archival file | uscthesesreloadpub_Volume23/etd-Rosoff-2890.pdf |
Description
| Title | Page 1 |
| Full text | USING DECISION AND RISK ANALYSIS TO ASSIST IN POLICY MAKING ABOUT TERRORISM by Heather Beth Rosoff A Dissertation Presented to the FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (POLICY, PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT) August 2009 Copyright 2009 Heather Beth Rosoff |
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