trojan
Volume XCI, Number 9	University of Southern California	Friday, June 25, 1982
RESEARCHER PREDICTS 8 MILLION IN COMMERCIAL USE BY 1990
Study to examine computer effects on the office
Some eight million “personal computers” will be on office desks by 1990, profoundly affecting both the internal workings of organizations and their relationships with customers, according to a university researcher.
To help computer users and producers deal with the opportunities -- and possible disasters — inherent in this new office automation a two-year study has been launched at the Center for Futures Research (CFR) at the Graduate School of Business Administration.
Jack Nilles, CFR senior research associate, will direct the study to examine the “Future Effects of Microcomputers on Business.”
“There’s a growing awareness among major corporations that personal computers — microcomputers on desks — are likely to have profound effects during the next 20 years,” says Dr. Nilles, an expert on the long-term impact of information technologies.
“Market planners in the computer and telecommunications industries are trying to forecast the patterns of growth in hardware, software and services.
“Strategic planners in organizations using microcomputers are trying to anticipate changes in productivity, training, communications and organizational behavior produced by the small machines that will make up a major portion of ‘office automation.’
“The USC study is designed to provide valuable new perspectives on these issues.”
The study will review existing corporate information management policies and examine alternative organizational
futures involving microcomputers. In addition, the study will identify the critical features required of the technologies presented to the users.
“The key for both groups — users and producers -- is the development of better foresight in planning over the next 20 years,” Nilles says.
Among the organizations that have already agreed to sponsor the study are American Telephone and Telegraph Co., ARA Transportation, Fairchild Semiconductors, Northrop Corp., Safeco Corp., Xerox Corp. and the U.S. Postal Service.
Representatives of the sponsors will serve on a research council to help define the scope of the study and help select critical issues for examination. In addition, sponsors will have early and continuing access to all data generated by the study.
Nilles points out that the rapid proliferation of microcomputers and microcomputer-based software packages is beginning to produce staggering problems for planners. Here are just a few of the problems to be investigated in the study:
For strategic planners:
Deciding how to allocate information processing resources among micro, mini and mainframe computers.
Assessing the effects of the use of micros on organizational communications and organizational stability.
For marketing planners:
Forcasting the growth rates of various microcomputer and telecommunications markets and the interactions between
various business, consumer and education markets.
Anticipating consumer demands for microcomputer-based capabilities formerly associated only with mainframes -- moderate to large databased. ‘expert’ systems, language-based architectures
‘Human attitudes and needs will be a primary focus of the study. ’
(for example, LISP machines), high resolution graphics, multimedia systems (data, voice, pictures), and the like.
For both groups
Maintenance of compatibility among corporate micros and between the micros, minis and mainframes.
Evaluation of productivity changes wrought by the use of micros, and the total costs, risks and benefits, both tangible and intangible, of their use..
Taking advantage of new marketing opportunites for both technology suppliers and users as millions of consumers buu micros over the next 20 years and connect them to telecommunications networks.
The new study will draw upon the results of a prior assessmemt of personal computer, which Nilles directed.
“The earlier study, sponsored by the National Science Foundation, concentrated on the implications of micros for federal policy,” Nilles says. “Although we will use many of the same analytical techniques in the new study, we will
focus on the specific problems of long-range business strategy.
“Most of our techniques are not typically used in the industry. This, and our emphasis on strategic rather than tactical planning, is where we differ from the approaches taken by research groups supporting the information industry.”
Human attitudes and needs will be a primary focus of the study.
“Technology may change rapidly,” Nilles explains, “but people don’t. There’s always the problem of fitting the technology to the needs and attitudes of its users.
“The history of computer applications is filled with misadventures resulting from poor adaptation of the machines to people -- and the proliferation of microcomputer multiplies these possibilities manyfold.
“Unless we plan for steady accommodation of the technology to its users, the future could be a string of debacles, costly errors and foregone opportunities. Our purpose is to prevent that and to identify the key positive strategies.”
The study will be completed in three phases. In the first phase, the technology and market forecasts for personal computer will be updated from the estimates made earlier by Nilles's team.
The second phase of the program will assess the potential impacts of technological and market developments, examining the alternative futures made possible by the technology. The final phase will be concerned with formulating strategic options for the best use of personal computers.
Two students held for burglary, grand theft auto
By John ikl
Assistant Editor
Two university students were arrested on charges of burglary and grand theft auto by officers of the Los Angeles Police Department and Campus Security Thursday morning at 28th and Figueroa streets.
No details were available by press time, reports Lt. Gary Rus, Campus Security com-
mander of Support Services.
In a highly unusual incident, a student claimed Tuesday that he was assaulted by the same student who allegedly had threatened earlier to kill the victim during a robbery attempt.
The victim says he returned inebriated Sunday morning from a party in Hollywood and fell asleep at an unidentified
fraternity house on 28th Street where he is staying, Rus reports.
The student claims that two suspects entered his room and demanded his money or else they would shoot him to death. The student saw no gun, Rus mentions.
The student escaped from his room and ran to the Campus Security office in campus
James Dennis appointed acting vice president of student affairs
James M. Dennis has been named acting vice president for student affairs effective immediately.
Dr. Dennis will fill the post recently vacated by Dr. James Appleton, who has been appointed vice president for development.
Dennis is no stranger to the Office of Student Affairs. For the last year, he has been associate vice president for student affairs and prior to that, he served for three years as assistant vice president. He is responsible for developing the successful Campus Life program.
Dennis started working at the university in 1966 in the department of health, physical education and recreation. He was an assistant professor in that department from 1971 to 1977. He also served as assistant director of athletics from
1973	to 1980.
For ten years (1970-1980), Dennis served as
executive director of Educational Clinics, an organization that provides learning opportunities for high school and college educators.
Dennis received his bachelor’s degree in physical education from Occidental College and his Ph.D. in administration from USC. He did postdoctoral work at the Claremont Colleges in the Higher Education Management Institute.
He is a member of several professional organizations, including the American Association of University Administrators; the National Association of Student Personnel Administrators, where he serves on the executive committee for Region VI; the Western Association of Schools and College Accrediting Commission Team: and the executive committee for the National Yourh Program, providing educational and sports opportunities for 50,000 disadvantaged youngsters.
Parking Structure B.
Police officers took two suspects into custody at the fraternity house but found no weapons, Rus adds.
In a conflicting report, the suspect claims that he also attended the party and had been intoxicated, but returned at a different time to the fraternity house and was listening to music until he was arrested by police. He maintained his innocence in his statement filed with the arrest report, Rus adds.
The same student also says he was battered by the same suspects when he visited them Tuesday at 2 p.m. at another fraternity house to discuss the incident, Rus continues.
The two shoved each other and exchanged harsh words, he mentions. The suspect then allegedly decked the victim with a punch on the nose.
A student's purse was. snatched Tuesday from a restroom stall in the Music Faculty Building.
The victim immediately hailed Campus Security officers, who chased three youths. The trio escaped, but dropped the purse with tell contents intact near the EVK-Harris Hall dormitory.
A student was shot in the back with a BB Monday as she was riding a bicycle in the 1100 block of 28th Street, Rus says. No suspects were seen or taken into custody, and the victim was treated at the Student Health Center and released.
A woman suffered broken legs after losing control of her car, which landed overturned in a 50-foot pit at the construction site of Parking Structure D, near the Davidson Conference Center. She was taken to a nearby hospital, Rus reports.
Letters welcome
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