Volume XCI Number 33
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University of Southern California
Tuesday March 2, 1982
Budget report predicts drop in fall enrollment
By Mark Grabow
Staff Writer
A 2 percent decline in total university enrollment is projected for the next academic year, a report to the Resource Management and Planning Committee stated last week.
If the Reagan administration's proposed budget cuts extend any deeper, overall enrollment could decline by 3.5 percent. This figure, however, is used as an extreme example of what could happen, said Veronica Tincher, director of Management Information Studies for the Office of Budget.
“It (the 3.5 percent enrollment drop) is not based on a probable assumption,” Tincher said.
The director said the most drastic cuts in Reagan’s 1983 budget proposal will not take effect until the fall of 1983.
The report was prepared by Tincher, Michael Halloran, director of Financial Aid and Automated Systems and Jon Strauss, senior vice president for Administration.
The report should receive much attention in coming days as administrators plan the 1982-83 budget. The report noted that the most important consideration in budget planning for the coming academic year is the volume and distribution of student enrollment.
The university has experienced slight declines in total enrollment in the past two years, and several factors, especially economic and demographic ones, imply that a reversal of the downward trend is unlikely.
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Students in Washington, D. C., protest financial aid cutbacks
By Craig Gima
Special Correspondent
WASHINGTON — Four to six thousand students, some wearing blue buttons that said “We are the Future,” descended on Capitol Hill Monday in hopes of convincing their representatives to vote against proposed cuts in loans, grants and other financial aid programs.
The students came to Washington to participate in National Student Lobby Day, a mass protest sponsored by Rep. Peter Peyser, D-N.Y., the United States Student Association (USSA) and The National Coalition of Independent College and University Students (COPUS).
Some protestors held signs and chanted ‘‘Books, not bombs” outside the Cannon House Office Building. Later, more than 500 crammed into an ornate, high-ceilinged cau-
Plans seen for 1982-83 budget
Report analyzes student behavior
By Charla Foster
Staff Writer
A recent report which predicted a 2 percent decline in total enrollment for the next academic year should affect how senior administrators shape the university’s 1982-83 budget, administrators said Monday.
“The report was based upon an analysis of the history of student behavior,” said Jon Strauss, senior vice president for Administration, adding that he considers this the best way to predict next year's enrollment status.
Strauss, along with with Michael Halloran, director of Financial Aid and Automated Systems and Veronica Tincher, director of Management Information Studies for the Office of the Budget, submitted the report to the Resource Management and Planning Committee .
The report based the 2 percent figure on historical enrollment patterns, as well as economic and demographic trends and the assumption that government financial aid for students will continue to decrease.
The report also takes into account Reagan administration’s proposals to slash or eliminate many student aid programs. To compound the problem, students may not necessarily find other sources of aid to offset the loss of government funds, Strauss said.
“If anything, administrators are worried that (the report) is too optimistic,” Strauss said, adding that many other non-federal problems are also working against the university.
This year, the university’s senior class outnumbers both the freshman and sophomore classes, and will create a 2 percent enrollment reduction in and of itself, the administrator said.
In order to offset both the predicted decline in continuing student enrollment and federal aid, the number of transfer students will have to increase by approximately 4.3 percent over the
1981	academic year.
“Our major concentration focuses upon what we can do to counteract this fall off, so we are seriously considering various ways to increase private funds through the university,” Strauss said.
“Frankly, we're very concerned about enrollment and are afraid that it will get worse no matter what we do.”
The administrator explained that the budget and inflation often affects enrollment in ways that university administrators cannot control.
“Regardless of what we do to improve the situation, we also plan to discuss the grim idea
that it may not make any difference,” he said.
Citing an example of uncontrollable effects, Strauss said that the parents of freshmen could react to student aid cutbacks, inflation and tuition increases by sending their children to other universities regardless of the university’s new proposals.
Tapping into endowment and other restricted funds ranks first among the administration’s new proposals to compensate for the predicted decrease in enrollment.
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cus room to hear both Democratic and Republican lawmakers oppose the proposed cuts.
“I'm convinced we’re going to win,” Peyser said of his fight to halt the proposed cuts. “This is a real loser for the Reagan administration.”
The organizers were “pleasantly surprised” by the turnout, said Miriam Rosenberg, national director of COPUS. Last year’s Lobby Day attracted only 1,200 students.
“President Reagan and his proposals are now the best rallying force we have,” she said.
Beverly Kieswetter, a university senior in public administration, said, “I think I accomplished something by my presence.”
Kieswetter and five other students on the School of Public Administration's Washington, D.C., Semester visited the offices of Senators Alan Cranston, D-Calif., S.I. Hayakawa, R-Calif., and Rep. Julian Dixon, D-Calif., who represents the district the university is located in.
An aide to Dixon said the congressman strongly opposes further aid cuts, unlike Hayakawa who supports the Reagan proposals. A Cranston aide said the senator, while opposed to the proposed changes in graduate loans, is waiting to see what committee action is taken on the proposals before taking a stand on the issue.
The Reagan administration’s proposed 1983 budget calls for a 56 percent decrease in financial aid below the levels of last
year’s Budget Reconciliation Act. No new funding would be provided for the Supplemental Educational Opportunity Grant (SEOG) program, the National Direct Student Loan (NDSL) program and the State Student Incentive Grant (SSIG) program.
Pell grants will be cut 12 percent. College Work-Study by 28 percent, and Trio programs, which provide services to encourage attendance and retention of disadvantaged students whose families have never gone to college, will be cut 47 percent.
The origination fee for undergraduate Federally Insured Student Loan (FISL) made under the Gauranteed Student Loan program would be doubled from 5 percent to 10 percent. In other words, a student would have to borrow $2,200 to receive $2,000. Students would also be required to pay market interest rates after graduation.
Hardest hit would be graduate student loans. Under the proposals, GSLs would no longer be available to graduate students. Instead, graduate students would have to borrow under the Auxiliary Loans to Assist Students (ALAS) program, which carries a 14 percent interest rate. Interest payments would begin while the student was in college and part-time students would be required to pay part of the principal also.
One student told a Cranston (Continued on page 11)
Staff photo by Jon Soo Hoo
UNIVERSITY MOAT — Although this bulldozer appears to be digging a moat around what used to be the intramural field, it is actually aiding in the construction of the MacDonald’s Swim Stadium, which will be used in the 1984 Olympic Games.
Enrollment decline seen for fall 1982
By Laura Castaneda
Staff Writer
An early report of a slight drop in freshmen applications has proven to be wrong. Current statictics show a 4 percent to 5 percent decrease. This figure, along with a projected 2 percent decrease in total university enrollment, may cause the university “to miss out on a lot of tuition dollars,” said Jay Berger, director of admissions.
The projected decline in enrollment was contained in a report to the Resource Management and Planning Committee, and is being used to plan the 1982-83 budget. The projection was submitted by Michael Halloran, director of Financial Aid and Automated Systems, Veronica Tincher. director of Management Information Studies for the Office of the Budget, and Jon Strauss, senior vice president of Administration.
The 2 percent decrease is based on economic and demographic trends, enrollment patterns, and early projections of decreases in government financial aid to students.
The admissions report published in the Feb. 11 Daily Trojan, which indicated only a slight decrease in applications, were accurate at the time as they were based on data prior to Feb. 1.
“We were holding our own at that point," Berger said.
Since then the number of applications has dropped and enrollment is also expected to fall. Berger said the economy is a major factor in this decline, but other things such as the publicity of crime on campus and projected tuition increases have also contributed to the loss of applicants.
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